There has been a great deal of talk in the media about the possibility of the NFL making changes to their OT rules. On one side you find those who feel there is no problem in watching reams duke it out for an hour, only to have what should act as the most exciting part of the game since it's determined on one possession of the ball in which that team has to move it thirty-forty years to set up the ultimate winning field goal.
On the other hand there are guys like commissioner Roger Goodell who feel that if you're not able to win a game within the first hour, then you should have no problem with how it gets decided after that hour and of course, no handicapping issues. This is a worthless discussion, but one that bears talking about a little bit.
What is disturbing is what a change in the rules could mean for sports wagering and sports handicapping. The NFL clearly owes some of it's huge popularity to the simple fact that it is the most gambled on sports game in the USA. If they chose an over time plan like the college version, what would that to - either positive or negative - to the lines that are put on national football league games?
Picture this, should you place a wager on a game that has a posted final of 42. Following regulation the score is tangled up at 14. Thus your bet for the game not making it under the posted final score looks fairly great, correct? Well let's say the overtime structure was much more like it is in college exactly where both teams obtain the ball regardless of anything.
Let's assume both teams score a touch down in OT. So now you could have had as much as forty-two points. Then another over time with two field goals, after which yet another with one FG to win the game. Now you went from having a solid chance with the game ending on the total of thirty-one with the typical OT determining field goal, to having a match where the total went as high as fifty-one. All if this in what is considered top time, or when you have no more time left to run off the game clock.
The NFL doesn't have to go to the college system, but things have to change. The OT rules as they are now, are busted. Let's think about it, you have the coin flip become more conductive to the outcome of the game than anything else. That's crazy, yet stats show that the coin toss winner wins an incredible 60% of games. Usually the team who loses the coin flip never even gets the ball. The rule should be that if both sides score the same amount in a tossup, then you use sudden death OT.
Regarding sports handicapping I might then allow it to be (like they should have carried out already for NCAA Football) a soccer rule for gambling reasons. In tournaments and games in soccer, where there is really a chance of overtime or penalty kicks, the betting line doesn't take into consideration these additional frames. That's why they have a Draw line. When the game ends in a tie following 90 minutes, the teams might continue to play to figure out a victor however for gambling reasons the overall game is finished.
My thoughts are that the national football league should have the same rules as soccer, but especially when or if the over time rules are modified. If you allow the game to continue on for betting reasons after the hour is up there will be no bloated scores that mock betting lines. Thus the rules should be changed to accentuate the players; not the coin flip, I feel that the betting rules also have to change.
On the other hand there are guys like commissioner Roger Goodell who feel that if you're not able to win a game within the first hour, then you should have no problem with how it gets decided after that hour and of course, no handicapping issues. This is a worthless discussion, but one that bears talking about a little bit.
What is disturbing is what a change in the rules could mean for sports wagering and sports handicapping. The NFL clearly owes some of it's huge popularity to the simple fact that it is the most gambled on sports game in the USA. If they chose an over time plan like the college version, what would that to - either positive or negative - to the lines that are put on national football league games?
Picture this, should you place a wager on a game that has a posted final of 42. Following regulation the score is tangled up at 14. Thus your bet for the game not making it under the posted final score looks fairly great, correct? Well let's say the overtime structure was much more like it is in college exactly where both teams obtain the ball regardless of anything.
Let's assume both teams score a touch down in OT. So now you could have had as much as forty-two points. Then another over time with two field goals, after which yet another with one FG to win the game. Now you went from having a solid chance with the game ending on the total of thirty-one with the typical OT determining field goal, to having a match where the total went as high as fifty-one. All if this in what is considered top time, or when you have no more time left to run off the game clock.
The NFL doesn't have to go to the college system, but things have to change. The OT rules as they are now, are busted. Let's think about it, you have the coin flip become more conductive to the outcome of the game than anything else. That's crazy, yet stats show that the coin toss winner wins an incredible 60% of games. Usually the team who loses the coin flip never even gets the ball. The rule should be that if both sides score the same amount in a tossup, then you use sudden death OT.
Regarding sports handicapping I might then allow it to be (like they should have carried out already for NCAA Football) a soccer rule for gambling reasons. In tournaments and games in soccer, where there is really a chance of overtime or penalty kicks, the betting line doesn't take into consideration these additional frames. That's why they have a Draw line. When the game ends in a tie following 90 minutes, the teams might continue to play to figure out a victor however for gambling reasons the overall game is finished.
My thoughts are that the national football league should have the same rules as soccer, but especially when or if the over time rules are modified. If you allow the game to continue on for betting reasons after the hour is up there will be no bloated scores that mock betting lines. Thus the rules should be changed to accentuate the players; not the coin flip, I feel that the betting rules also have to change.
About the Author:
Rich Allen is an expert in Sports Handicapping. His Sports Betting Professor Systems have sold over 250,000 units and cover all major sports. Download a FREE copy of The Sports Betting Insider's Guide at: http://richallensports.com/sports-handicapping
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